Leeds United
09:00 PM
Sep 14
Newcastle United
Leeds United – Newcastle United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Leeds United at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.50 goals for Leeds United and 1.29 for Newcastle United. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Leeds United took 8 points and Newcastle United 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Leeds United, 2 draws, 1 win for Newcastle United. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leeds United | 2.33 | 41 % | -6.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.48 | 27 % | -3.6 % |
| 2Newcastle United | 3.02 | 32 % | -3.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Leeds United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Leeds United | Form and statistics | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 1695 | Elo | 1731 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 12.3 | Shots / match | 13.7 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Leeds United
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Newcastle United
- Newcastle United4-3Leeds United
- Leeds United0-0Newcastle United
- Leeds United2-2Newcastle United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leeds United – Newcastle United?
Our model gives 1 · Leeds United a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Leeds United win 40 %, draw 28 %, Newcastle United win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United – Newcastle United?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
