Cruzeiro
Bahia
Cruzeiro – Bahia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 4, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruzeiro at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.77 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.99 for Bahia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Cruzeiro took 12 points and Bahia 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 draw, 1 win for Bahia. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruzeiro | 1.68 | 56 % | -5.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -0.6 % |
| 2Bahia | 4.30 | 22 % | -16.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Cruzeiro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bahia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Cruzeiro
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Bahia
- Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
- Bahia1-2Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro3-0Bahia
- Cruzeiro1-1Bahia
- Bahia4-1Cruzeiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cruzeiro – Bahia?
Our model gives 1 · Cruzeiro a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cruzeiro win 56 %, draw 24 %, Bahia win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Cruzeiro – Bahia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.