Aldosivi
River Plate
Aldosivi – River Plate
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 4, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 0-114 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.83 – 1.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards River Plate away from home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.83 goals for Aldosivi and 1.64 for River Plate. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 66 %. Over their last five matches, Aldosivi took 3 points and River Plate 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Aldosivi, 0 draws, 4 wins for River Plate. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aldosivi | 7.00 | 13 % | +16.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | +19.3 % |
| 2River Plate | 1.42 | 66 % | -19.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Aldosivi
- Last 5 matches
- At home
River Plate
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Aldosivi
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- River Plate
- River Plate3-1Aldosivi
- Aldosivi0-3River Plate
- River Plate2-0Aldosivi
- Aldosivi1-2River Plate
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Aldosivi – River Plate?
Our model gives 2 · River Plate a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Aldosivi win 17 %, draw 27 %, River Plate win 57 %.
What is the most likely score for Aldosivi – River Plate?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.