Rio Ave
3-3
Estrela
Rio Ave – Estrela
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.15 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela. The model predicted a win for Estrela (40 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.15 goals for Rio Ave and 1.40 for Estrela. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Rio Ave took 3 points and Estrela 9 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Rio Ave, 1 draw, 1 win for Estrela. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rio Ave | 2.84 | 33 % | -15.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.23 | 29 % | -3.3 % |
| 2Estrela | 2.48 | 38 % | -0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Rio Ave
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Estrela
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Rio Ave
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Estrela
- Rio Ave2-1Estrela
- Estrela1-2Rio Ave
- Rio Ave2-0Estrela
- Estrela1-0Rio Ave
- Estrela2-2Rio Ave
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Rio Ave – Estrela?
Final score: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela. The model predicted a win for Estrela (40 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Rio Ave – Estrela?
Our model gives 2 · Estrela a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Rio Ave win 30 %, draw 30 %, Estrela win 40 %.