Real Sociedad
Lyon
Real Sociedad – Lyon
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 4, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Sociedad at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.16 for Lyon. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Real Sociedad took 10 points and Lyon 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Sociedad | 1.81 | 52 % | -8.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -9.2 % |
| 2Lyon | 4.05 | 23 % | +6.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lyon
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Sociedad – Lyon?
Our model gives 1 · Real Sociedad a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Sociedad win 50 %, draw 23 %, Lyon win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad – Lyon?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.