São Paulo
Corinthians
São Paulo – Corinthians
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards São Paulo at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for São Paulo and 1.02 for Corinthians. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, São Paulo took 7 points and Corinthians 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for São Paulo, 1 draw, 2 wins for Corinthians. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1São Paulo | 2.25 | 41 % | +10.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -20.0 % |
| 2Corinthians | 3.25 | 29 % | -18.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Corinthians
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- São Paulo
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Corinthians
- Corinthians3-2São Paulo
- Corinthians3-1São Paulo
- São Paulo2-0Corinthians
- São Paulo3-1Corinthians
- Corinthians2-2São Paulo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win São Paulo – Corinthians?
Our model gives 1 · São Paulo a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: São Paulo win 49 %, draw 26 %, Corinthians win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for São Paulo – Corinthians?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.