Botafogo
Atlético-MG
Botafogo – Atlético-MG
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Botafogo at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Botafogo and 1.19 for Atlético-MG. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Botafogo took 4 points and Atlético-MG 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Botafogo, 2 draws, 1 win for Atlético-MG. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo | 1.90 | 49 % | -15.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | +3.6 % |
| 2Atlético-MG | 3.55 | 26 % | -3.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Botafogo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Botafogo
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG1-1Botafogo
- Botafogo1-0Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG1-0Botafogo
- Atlético-MG1-3Botafogo
- Atlético-MG0-0Botafogo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Botafogo – Atlético-MG?
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo win 45 %, draw 28 %, Atlético-MG win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Botafogo – Atlético-MG?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.