Flamengo
Grêmio
Flamengo – Grêmio
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 78 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.43 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo at home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.43 goals for Flamengo and 0.71 for Grêmio. Bookmakers say the same thing: 80 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Flamengo took 11 points and Grêmio 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Flamengo, 1 draw, 1 win for Grêmio. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 1.16 | 80 % | -9.4 % |
| XDraw | 7.50 | 12 % | +11.3 % |
| 2Grêmio | 13.00 | 7 % | -8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Grêmio
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Flamengo
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Grêmio
- Grêmio0-1Flamengo
- Flamengo1-1Grêmio
- Grêmio0-2Flamengo
- Grêmio3-2Flamengo
- Flamengo2-1Grêmio
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo – Grêmio?
Our model gives 1 · Flamengo a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Flamengo win 78 %, draw 15 %, Grêmio win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Flamengo – Grêmio?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.