Athletico-PR
Vasco da Gama
Athletico-PR – Vasco da Gama
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Athletico-PR at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Athletico-PR and 1.09 for Vasco da Gama. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Athletico-PR took 5 points and Vasco da Gama 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Athletico-PR, 1 draw, 2 wins for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletico-PR | 2.10 | 45 % | +3.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -11.8 % |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 3.30 | 28 % | -16.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Athletico-PR
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vasco da Gama
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Athletico-PR
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-0Athletico-PR
- Vasco da Gama2-1Athletico-PR
- Athletico-PR1-0Vasco da Gama
- Athletico-PR0-0Vasco da Gama
- Athletico-PR3-0Vasco da Gama
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletico-PR – Vasco da Gama?
Our model gives 1 · Athletico-PR a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Athletico-PR win 49 %, draw 25 %, Vasco da Gama win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Athletico-PR – Vasco da Gama?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.