RB Leipzig
Manchester City
RB Leipzig – Manchester City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 2.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for RB Leipzig and 2.06 for Manchester City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, RB Leipzig took 9 points and Manchester City 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for RB Leipzig, 1 draw, 3 wins for Manchester City. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1RB Leipzig | 5.25 | 18 % | +40.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.78 | 20 % | +3.7 % |
| 2Manchester City | 1.55 | 62 % | -20.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
RB Leipzig
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- RB Leipzig
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Manchester City
- Manchester City3-2RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-3Manchester City
- Manchester City7-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig1-1Manchester City
- RB Leipzig2-1Manchester City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win RB Leipzig – Manchester City?
Our model gives 2 · Manchester City a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: RB Leipzig win 27 %, draw 22 %, Manchester City win 52 %.
What is the most likely score for RB Leipzig – Manchester City?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.