Predictions are closed for this match.
Gaziantep FK
07:00 PM
Sep 14
Fenerbahce
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gaziantep FK | 6.00 | 16 % | -9.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -3.5 % |
| 2Fenerbahce | 1.48 | 63 % | -6.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Gaziantep FK
Fenerbahce
| Gaziantep FK | Form and statistics | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 1472 | Elo | 1752 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 13.4 | Shots / match | 15.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Fenerbahce a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Gaziantep FK win 15 %, draw 21 %, Fenerbahce win 64 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 6.00 for Gaziantep FK, 4.50 for the draw, 1.48 for Fenerbahce.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Süper Lig), at Gaziantep Stadium.
The model leans towards Fenerbahce away from home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.93 goals for Gaziantep FK and 2.12 for Fenerbahce. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Gaziantep FK took 7 points and Fenerbahce 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 0 draws, 5 wins for Fenerbahce. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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