Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Wrexham – Middlesbrough
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.15 – 1.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Middlesbrough away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.15 goals for Wrexham and 1.65 for Middlesbrough. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, Wrexham took 4 points and Middlesbrough 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Wrexham, 2 draws, 1 win for Middlesbrough. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wrexham | 4.20 | 22 % | +11.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | +8.5 % |
| 2Middlesbrough | 1.74 | 54 % | -19.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Wrexham
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Middlesbrough
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Wrexham
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-0Wrexham
- Wrexham2-2Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough1-1Wrexham
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Wrexham – Middlesbrough?
Our model gives 2 · Middlesbrough a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Wrexham win 26 %, draw 27 %, Middlesbrough win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Wrexham – Middlesbrough?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.