Predictions are closed for this match.
Torino
06:30 PM
Sep 14
AS Roma
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Torino | 6.00 | 16 % | -18.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -19.9 % |
| 2AS Roma | 1.52 | 62 % | +1.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Torino
AS Roma
| Torino | Form and statistics | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 1548 | Elo | 1782 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 11.5 | Shots / match | 16.9 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 9 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · AS Roma a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Torino win 14 %, draw 20 %, AS Roma win 67 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 6.00 for Torino, 4.10 for the draw, 1.52 for AS Roma.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 at 06:30 PM (Serie A), at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
The model leans towards AS Roma away from home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.87 goals for Torino and 2.09 for AS Roma. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, Torino took 6 points and AS Roma 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Torino, 0 draws, 3 wins for AS Roma. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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