AEK Athens
Real Madrid
AEK Athens – Real Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 3, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 2.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid away from home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.22 goals for AEK Athens and 2.13 for Real Madrid. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 76 %. Over their last five matches, AEK Athens took 6 points and Real Madrid 15 points. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AEK Athens | 9.50 | 10 % | +112.7 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 14 % | +38.4 % |
| 2Real Madrid | 1.25 | 76 % | -27.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AEK Athens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AEK Athens – Real Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Real Madrid a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AEK Athens win 22 %, draw 20 %, Real Madrid win 58 %.
What is the most likely score for AEK Athens – Real Madrid?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.