Predictions are closed for this match.
Como
06:30 PM
Sep 14
Parma
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Como | 1.20 | 78 % | -6.4 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Parma | 13.50 | 7 % | -6.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Como
Parma
| Como | Form and statistics | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| 1773 | Elo | 1514 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 0.70 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 16.4 | Shots / match | 9.3 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:47 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Como a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Como win 78 %, draw 15 %, Parma win 7 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 44 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.20 for Como, 6.00 for the draw, 13.50 for Parma.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 14, 2026 at 06:30 PM (Serie A), at Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
The model leans towards Como at home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.37 goals for Como and 0.67 for Parma. Bookmakers say the same thing: 78 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Como took 13 points and Parma 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Como, 3 draws, 0 wins for Parma. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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