Predictions are closed for this match.
FC Famalicao
09:30 PM
Sep 13
Sporting CP
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Famalicao | 6.00 | 16 % | +7.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.15 | 23 % | -4.5 % |
| 2Sporting CP | 1.51 | 62 % | -10.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
FC Famalicao
Sporting CP
| FC Famalicao | Form and statistics | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 1604 | Elo | 1871 |
| 1.00 | Goals scored / match | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 10.3 | Shots / match | 15.4 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Sporting CP a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Famalicao win 18 %, draw 23 %, Sporting CP win 59 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 6.00 for FC Famalicao, 4.15 for the draw, 1.51 for Sporting CP.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 09:30 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
The model leans towards Sporting CP away from home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.03 goals for FC Famalicao and 1.94 for Sporting CP. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Famalicao took 3 points and Sporting CP 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for FC Famalicao, 0 draws, 5 wins for Sporting CP. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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