Internacional
Coritiba
Internacional – Coritiba
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 2, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Internacional at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.60 goals for Internacional and 0.98 for Coritiba. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Internacional took 7 points and Coritiba 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Internacional, 3 draws, 1 win for Coritiba. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internacional | 1.55 | 60 % | -21.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +16.2 % |
| 2Coritiba | 5.50 | 17 % | +14.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Internacional
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Coritiba
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Internacional
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Coritiba
- Coritiba2-2Internacional
- Internacional3-4Coritiba
- Coritiba1-1Internacional
- Internacional3-0Coritiba
- Internacional2-2Coritiba
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Internacional – Coritiba?
Our model gives 1 · Internacional a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Internacional win 51 %, draw 28 %, Coritiba win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Internacional – Coritiba?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.