Real Sociedad
09:00 PM
Sep 13
Atlético Madrid
Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético Madrid away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.29 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.47 for Atlético Madrid. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Real Sociedad took 7 points and Atlético Madrid 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Real Sociedad, 3 draws, 2 wins for Atlético Madrid. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Sociedad | 3.40 | 28 % | +6.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | +0.2 % |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 2.10 | 45 % | -14.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Sociedad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Real Sociedad | Form and statistics | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1653 | Elo | 1755 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 10.8 | Shots / match | 13.0 |
| 20 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Real Sociedad
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid2-2Real Sociedad
- Atlético Madrid3-2Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad1-1Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid4-0Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad1-1Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid?
Our model gives 2 · Atlético Madrid a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Sociedad win 31 %, draw 28 %, Atlético Madrid win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
