Atlético Madrid
Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 2, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.45 – 2.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69 %
- Both teams to score
- 68 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.45 goals for Atlético Madrid and 2.13 for Bayern Munich. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Atlético Madrid took 13 points and Bayern Munich 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Atlético Madrid, 1 draw, 1 win for Bayern Munich. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 68 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Madrid | 2.58 | 37 % | -24.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.92 | 24 % | -27.7 % |
| 2Bayern Munich | 2.48 | 39 % | +29.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Bayern Munich
- Atlético Madrid1-1Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich4-0Atlético Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich?
Our model gives 2 · Bayern Munich a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Madrid win 29 %, draw 18 %, Bayern Munich win 52 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.