Watford
Lincoln City
Watford – Lincoln City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 2, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 35 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lincoln City away from home (35 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.27 goals for Watford and 1.34 for Lincoln City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Watford took 3 points and Lincoln City 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Watford | 2.42 | 39 % | -16.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.38 | 28 % | +2.9 % |
| 2Lincoln City | 2.80 | 34 % | -1.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Watford
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lincoln City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Watford – Lincoln City?
Our model gives 2 · Lincoln City a 35 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Watford win 34 %, draw 30 %, Lincoln City win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Watford – Lincoln City?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.