Portsmouth
Swansea City
Portsmouth – Swansea City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 2, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portsmouth at home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.22 goals for Portsmouth and 1.19 for Swansea City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Portsmouth took 11 points and Swansea City 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Portsmouth, 1 draw, 2 wins for Swansea City. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portsmouth | 2.64 | 36 % | -1.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -3.5 % |
| 2Swansea City | 2.60 | 36 % | -12.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Portsmouth
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Swansea City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Portsmouth
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Swansea City
- Portsmouth1-2Swansea City
- Swansea City1-0Portsmouth
- Portsmouth4-0Swansea City
- Swansea City2-2Portsmouth
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portsmouth – Swansea City?
Our model gives 1 · Portsmouth a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portsmouth win 37 %, draw 29 %, Swansea City win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Portsmouth – Swansea City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.