Predictions are closed for this match.
Brest
08:45 PM
Sep 13
Paris Saint-Germain
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brest | 11.50 | 8 % | +51.2 % |
| XDraw | 6.75 | 14 % | +25.6 % |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | 1.22 | 78 % | -16.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain
| Brest | Form and statistics | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 1562 | Elo | 1887 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 2.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 14.3 | Shots / match | 18.5 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Paris Saint-Germain a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brest win 13 %, draw 19 %, Paris Saint-Germain win 68 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 65 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 11.50 for Brest, 6.75 for the draw, 1.22 for Paris Saint-Germain.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain away from home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.89 goals for Brest and 2.44 for Paris Saint-Germain. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, Brest took 6 points and Paris Saint-Germain 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Brest, 0 draws, 5 wins for Paris Saint-Germain. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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