Shakhtar Donetsk
Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 2, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sporting CP away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.24 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.84 for Sporting CP. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 48 %. Over their last five matches, Shakhtar Donetsk took 4 points and Sporting CP 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shakhtar Donetsk | 3.60 | 26 % | -11.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -21.1 % |
| 2Sporting CP | 1.98 | 48 % | +7.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Shakhtar Donetsk
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sporting CP
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP?
Our model gives 2 · Sporting CP a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Shakhtar Donetsk win 25 %, draw 21 %, Sporting CP win 54 %.
What is the most likely score for Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.