Predictions are closed for this match.
PAOK
08:00 PM
Sep 13
Aris
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PAOK | 1.52 | 62 % | -14.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | +0.8 % |
| 2Aris | 6.00 | 16 % | +19.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
PAOK
Aris
| PAOK | Form and statistics | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| 1676 | Elo | 1576 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 12.8 | Shots / match | 17.4 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · PAOK a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PAOK win 56 %, draw 24 %, Aris win 20 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.52 for PAOK, 4.20 for the draw, 6.00 for Aris.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Super League Greece), at Toumba Stadium.
The model leans towards PAOK at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.88 goals for PAOK and 0.96 for Aris. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 62 %. Over their last five matches, PAOK took 7 points and Aris 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for PAOK, 2 draws, 1 win for Aris. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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