Al Sadd
Al Ahli
Al Sadd – Al Ahli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 1, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Ahli away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.47 goals for Al Sadd and 1.78 for Al Ahli. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Al Sadd took 3 points and Al Ahli 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Al Sadd, 0 draws, 2 wins for Al Ahli. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Sadd | 3.05 | 31 % | -15.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -10.3 % |
| 2Al Ahli | 2.10 | 45 % | +3.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Al Sadd
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Ahli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Al Sadd
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Al Ahli
- Al Sadd1-2Al Ahli
- Al Sadd1-3Al Ahli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Sadd – Al Ahli?
Our model gives 2 · Al Ahli a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Sadd win 28 %, draw 23 %, Al Ahli win 49 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Sadd – Al Ahli?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.