Red Bull Bragantino
Santos
Red Bull Bragantino – Santos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 1, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Red Bull Bragantino at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Red Bull Bragantino and 1.16 for Santos. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Red Bull Bragantino took 8 points and Santos 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Red Bull Bragantino, 1 draw, 2 wins for Santos. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Bull Bragantino | 2.05 | 46 % | -7.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Santos | 3.30 | 28 % | -5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Red Bull Bragantino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Red Bull Bragantino
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Santos
- Santos2-0Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino2-2Santos
- Santos1-2Red Bull Bragantino
- Santos1-3Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino0-2Santos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Red Bull Bragantino – Santos?
Our model gives 1 · Red Bull Bragantino a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Red Bull Bragantino win 45 %, draw 26 %, Santos win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Red Bull Bragantino – Santos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.