Defensa y Justicia
Independiente
Defensa y Justicia – Independiente
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 1, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Defensa y Justicia at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 1.02 for Independiente. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Defensa y Justicia took 10 points and Independiente 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Defensa y Justicia, 2 draws, 1 win for Independiente. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Defensa y Justicia | 2.20 | 43 % | -10.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -3.3 % |
| 2Independiente | 3.35 | 28 % | -2.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Defensa y Justicia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Independiente
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Defensa y Justicia
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Independiente
- Independiente3-1Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-0Independiente
- Independiente0-2Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia2-1Independiente
- Independiente0-0Defensa y Justicia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Defensa y Justicia – Independiente?
Our model gives 1 · Defensa y Justicia a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Defensa y Justicia win 41 %, draw 30 %, Independiente win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Defensa y Justicia – Independiente?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.