Fortaleza
Atlético Goianiense
Fortaleza – Atlético Goianiense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 1, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fortaleza at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.28 goals for Fortaleza and 1.08 for Atlético Goianiense. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fortaleza took 9 points and Atlético Goianiense 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Fortaleza, 1 draw, 2 wins for Atlético Goianiense. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortaleza | 2.05 | 45 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -3.1 % |
| 2Atlético Goianiense | 3.50 | 27 % | -7.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Goianiense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Fortaleza
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Atlético Goianiense
- Atlético Goianiense1-0Fortaleza
- Atlético Goianiense3-1Fortaleza
- Fortaleza3-1Atlético Goianiense
- Fortaleza1-1Atlético Goianiense
- Atlético Goianiense0-1Fortaleza
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fortaleza – Atlético Goianiense?
Our model gives 1 · Fortaleza a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fortaleza win 44 %, draw 29 %, Atlético Goianiense win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Fortaleza – Atlético Goianiense?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.