PSV Eindhoven
08:00 PM
Sep 13
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 3-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.58 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 82 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PSV Eindhoven at home (85 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.58 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.85 for Sparta Rotterdam. Bookmakers say the same thing: 81 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, PSV Eindhoven took 13 points and Sparta Rotterdam 5 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 draws, 0 wins for Sparta Rotterdam. Over 2.5 goals: 82 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 1.17 | 81 % | -0.7 % |
| XDraw | 8.00 | 12 % | -19.8 % |
| 2Sparta Rotterdam | 12.50 | 8 % | -35.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
PSV Eindhoven
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sparta Rotterdam
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| PSV Eindhoven | Form and statistics | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| 1826 | Elo | 1498 |
| 3.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 2.40 |
| 18.0 | Shots / match | 14.1 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- PSV Eindhoven
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam0-2PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven6-1Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam1-3PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven2-1Sparta Rotterdam
- PSV Eindhoven4-2Sparta Rotterdam
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model gives 1 · PSV Eindhoven a 85 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PSV Eindhoven win 85 %, draw 10 %, Sparta Rotterdam win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for PSV Eindhoven – Sparta Rotterdam?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
