Benfica
Alverca
Benfica – Alverca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 86 %
- Most likely score
- 3-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.20 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Benfica at home (86 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.20 goals for Benfica and 0.68 for Alverca. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 81 %. Over their last five matches, Benfica took 12 points and Alverca 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Benfica, 0 draws, 0 wins for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals: 74 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 1.14 | 81 % | -1.7 % |
| XDraw | 7.75 | 12 % | -22.9 % |
| 2Alverca | 13.00 | 7 % | -47.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Benfica
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Alverca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Benfica
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Alverca
- Benfica2-1Alverca
- Alverca1-2Benfica
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Benfica – Alverca?
Our model gives 1 · Benfica a 86 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Benfica win 86 %, draw 10 %, Alverca win 4 %.
What is the most likely score for Benfica – Alverca?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.