Newcastle United
Everton
Newcastle United – Everton
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newcastle United at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.51 goals for Newcastle United and 1.34 for Everton. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Newcastle United took 6 points and Everton 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Newcastle United, 1 draw, 3 wins for Everton. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newcastle United | 2.38 | 40 % | +7.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Everton | 2.90 | 33 % | -15.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Everton
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Newcastle United
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Everton
- Everton3-1Newcastle United
- Newcastle United2-3Everton
- Everton1-4Newcastle United
- Newcastle United0-1Everton
- Everton0-0Newcastle United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle United – Everton?
Our model gives 1 · Newcastle United a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Newcastle United win 45 %, draw 26 %, Everton win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United – Everton?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.