Fredrikstad Stadion
Fredrikstad
1-1
Sarpsborg FK
Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg FK
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg FK. The model predicted a win for Fredrikstad (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.35 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.37 for Sarpsborg FK. Bookmakers say the same thing: 37 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fredrikstad took 12 points and Sarpsborg FK 3 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 2 draws, 1 win for Sarpsborg FK. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredrikstad | 2.55 | 37 % | -6.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -1.0 % |
| 2Sarpsborg FK | 2.60 | 36 % | -8.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fredrikstad
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sarpsborg FK
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Fredrikstad
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Sarpsborg FK
- Sarpsborg FK2-1Fredrikstad
- Sarpsborg FK0-2Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad1-1Sarpsborg FK
- Sarpsborg FK0-1Fredrikstad
- Fredrikstad2-2Sarpsborg FK
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg FK?
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-1 Sarpsborg FK. The model predicted a win for Fredrikstad (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Fredrikstad – Sarpsborg FK?
Our model gives 1 · Fredrikstad a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fredrikstad win 37 %, draw 28 %, Sarpsborg FK win 35 %.