Lorient
Brest
Lorient – Brest
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lorient at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Lorient and 1.16 for Brest. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. Over their last five matches, Lorient took 8 points and Brest 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Lorient, 1 draw, 3 wins for Brest. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lorient | 2.48 | 38 % | +15.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 30 % | -13.4 % |
| 2Brest | 3.00 | 32 % | -21.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lorient
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brest
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Lorient
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Brest
- Brest2-0Lorient
- Lorient3-3Brest
- Lorient0-1Brest
- Brest4-0Lorient
- Lorient2-1Brest
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lorient – Brest?
Our model gives 1 · Lorient a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lorient win 47 %, draw 27 %, Brest win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Lorient – Brest?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.