Kalamata
Iraklis
Kalamata – Iraklis
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kalamata at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Kalamata and 1.14 for Iraklis. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Kalamata took 9 points and Iraklis 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kalamata | 2.35 | 40 % | +0.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Iraklis | 3.10 | 30 % | -16.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Kalamata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Iraklis
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kalamata – Iraklis?
Our model gives 1 · Kalamata a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kalamata win 43 %, draw 30 %, Iraklis win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Kalamata – Iraklis?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.