Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Sassuolo – Fiorentina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sassuolo at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.49 goals for Sassuolo and 1.40 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sassuolo took 1 point and Fiorentina 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Sassuolo, 1 draw, 2 wins for Fiorentina. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sassuolo | 2.79 | 34 % | +7.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | +0.1 % |
| 2Fiorentina | 2.33 | 40 % | -21.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sassuolo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fiorentina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Sassuolo
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Fiorentina
- Fiorentina0-0Sassuolo
- Sassuolo3-1Fiorentina
- Fiorentina5-1Sassuolo
- Sassuolo1-0Fiorentina
- Sassuolo1-3Fiorentina
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sassuolo – Fiorentina?
Our model gives 1 · Sassuolo a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sassuolo win 39 %, draw 28 %, Fiorentina win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Sassuolo – Fiorentina?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.