Real Oviedo
Las Palmas
Real Oviedo – Las Palmas
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Nov 1, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Oviedo at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.60 goals for Real Oviedo and 1.02 for Las Palmas. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Real Oviedo took 8 points and Las Palmas 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Real Oviedo, 3 draws, 1 win for Las Palmas. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Oviedo | 1.71 | 55 % | -15.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +2.7 % |
| 2Las Palmas | 4.60 | 20 % | +7.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Real Oviedo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Las Palmas
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Real Oviedo
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- Las Palmas
- Las Palmas0-1Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo0-0Las Palmas
- Las Palmas2-1Real Oviedo
- Real Oviedo1-1Las Palmas
- Real Oviedo0-0Las Palmas
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Oviedo – Las Palmas?
Our model gives 1 · Real Oviedo a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Oviedo win 49 %, draw 27 %, Las Palmas win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Oviedo – Las Palmas?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.