Predictions are closed for this match.
Galatasaray
07:00 PM
Sep 13
Kocaelispor
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Galatasaray | 1.27 | 75 % | -2.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Kocaelispor | 10.50 | 9 % | -20.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Galatasaray
Kocaelispor
| Galatasaray | Form and statistics | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| 1762 | Elo | 1494 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 18.4 | Shots / match | 9.9 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Galatasaray a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Galatasaray win 77 %, draw 16 %, Kocaelispor win 8 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 65 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.27 for Galatasaray, 5.75 for the draw, 10.50 for Kocaelispor.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Süper Lig), at RAMS Park.
The model leans towards Galatasaray at home (77 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.58 goals for Galatasaray and 0.76 for Kocaelispor. Bookmakers say the same thing: 75 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Galatasaray took 10 points and Kocaelispor 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Galatasaray, 1 draw, 1 win for Kocaelispor. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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