Predictions are closed for this match.
Benfica
07:00 PM
Sep 13
Gil Vicente
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 1.10 | 85 % | -7.9 % |
| XDraw | 8.75 | 11 % | -5.0 % |
| 2Gil Vicente | 19.50 | 5 % | +12.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Benfica
Gil Vicente
| Benfica | Form and statistics | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| 1851 | Elo | 1546 |
| 3.60 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 22.1 | Shots / match | 13.7 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Benfica a 83 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Benfica win 83 %, draw 11 %, Gil Vicente win 6 %.
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 74 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.10 for Benfica, 8.75 for the draw, 19.50 for Gil Vicente.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio da Luz.
The model leans towards Benfica at home (83 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.13 goals for Benfica and 0.72 for Gil Vicente. Bookmakers say the same thing: 85 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Benfica took 15 points and Gil Vicente 7 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Benfica, 0 draws, 0 wins for Gil Vicente. Over 2.5 goals: 74 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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