Arouca
1-2
Santa Clara
Arouca – Santa Clara
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.22
The short version
Final score: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara. The model predicted a win for Arouca (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Arouca and 1.22 for Santa Clara. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Arouca took 10 points and Santa Clara 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Arouca, 2 draws, 1 win for Santa Clara. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arouca | 2.58 | 36 % | -4.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.08 | 31 % | -12.8 % |
| 2Santa Clara | 2.85 | 33 % | -1.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Arouca
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santa Clara
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Arouca
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Santa Clara
- Arouca2-2Santa Clara
- Santa Clara0-0Arouca
- Santa Clara2-0Arouca
- Arouca1-0Santa Clara
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Arouca – Santa Clara?
Final score: Arouca 1-2 Santa Clara. The model predicted a win for Arouca (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Arouca – Santa Clara?
Our model gives 1 · Arouca a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Arouca win 37 %, draw 28 %, Santa Clara win 34 %.