Predictions are closed for this match.
FC Nordsjælland
06:00 PM
Sep 13
AGF
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Nordsjælland | 1.76 | 54 % | +6.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | -15.5 % |
| 2AGF | 4.00 | 24 % | -25.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
FC Nordsjælland
AGF
| FC Nordsjælland | Form and statistics | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| 1674 | Elo | 1579 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 0.70 | Goals conceded / match | 2.30 |
| 18.6 | Shots / match | 14.7 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · FC Nordsjælland a 61 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Nordsjælland win 61 %, draw 21 %, AGF win 19 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 62 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.76 for FC Nordsjælland, 4.10 for the draw, 4.00 for AGF.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Danish Superliga), at Right to Dream Park.
The model leans towards FC Nordsjælland at home (61 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.12 goals for FC Nordsjælland and 1.09 for AGF. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, FC Nordsjælland took 10 points and AGF 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Nordsjælland, 2 draws, 2 wins for AGF. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
