Cruz Azul
León
Cruz Azul – León
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 70 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.46 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruz Azul at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.46 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.94 for León. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Cruz Azul took 11 points and León 8 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Cruz Azul, 0 draws, 1 win for León. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruz Azul | 1.66 | 56 % | +16.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -26.2 % |
| 2León | 4.40 | 21 % | -46.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Cruz Azul
- Last 5 matches
- At home
León
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Cruz Azul
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- León
- León2-1Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul4-1León
- Cruz Azul2-1León
- León2-3Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul2-1León
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cruz Azul – León?
Our model gives 1 · Cruz Azul a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cruz Azul win 70 %, draw 18 %, León win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Cruz Azul – León?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.