Lanús
Gimnasia (Mendoza)
Lanús – Gimnasia (Mendoza)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lanús at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Lanús and 0.86 for Gimnasia (Mendoza). Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Lanús took 11 points and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Lanús, 0 draws, 1 win for Gimnasia (Mendoza). Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lanús | 1.58 | 59 % | -20.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | +13.8 % |
| 2Gimnasia (Mendoza) | 5.75 | 16 % | +17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lanús
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gimnasia (Mendoza)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Lanús
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Gimnasia (Mendoza)
- Gimnasia (Mendoza)1-0Lanús
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lanús – Gimnasia (Mendoza)?
Our model gives 1 · Lanús a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lanús win 50 %, draw 30 %, Gimnasia (Mendoza) win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Lanús – Gimnasia (Mendoza)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.