Asteras Tripoli
1-1
AEK Athens
Asteras Tripoli – AEK Athens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 0-213 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.68 – 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Asteras Tripoli 1-1 AEK Athens. The model predicted a win for AEK Athens (74 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.68 goals for Asteras Tripoli and 2.61 for AEK Athens. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Asteras Tripoli took 4 points and AEK Athens 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Asteras Tripoli, 0 draws, 5 wins for AEK Athens. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Asteras Tripoli | 7.50 | 13 % | -29.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 21 % | -24.2 % |
| 2AEK Athens | 1.42 | 67 % | +5.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Asteras Tripoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AEK Athens
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Asteras Tripoli
- 0 draws
- 5 wins
- AEK Athens
- Asteras Tripoli0-1AEK Athens
- AEK Athens1-0Asteras Tripoli
- Asteras Tripoli0-3AEK Athens
- AEK Athens3-0Asteras Tripoli
- AEK Athens4-2Asteras Tripoli
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Asteras Tripoli – AEK Athens?
Final score: Asteras Tripoli 1-1 AEK Athens. The model predicted a win for AEK Athens (74 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Asteras Tripoli – AEK Athens?
Our model gives 2 · AEK Athens a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Asteras Tripoli win 9 %, draw 16 %, AEK Athens win 74 %.