Newell's Old Boys
Unión (Santa Fe)
Newell's Old Boys – Unión (Santa Fe)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.32 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Newell's Old Boys at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.32 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 0.98 for Unión (Santa Fe). Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Newell's Old Boys took 8 points and Unión (Santa Fe) 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Newell's Old Boys, 1 draw, 2 wins for Unión (Santa Fe). Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Newell's Old Boys | 2.00 | 47 % | -12.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | +0.5 % |
| 2Unión (Santa Fe) | 3.80 | 25 % | -1.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Newell's Old Boys
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Unión (Santa Fe)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Newell's Old Boys
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)2-3Newell's Old Boys
- Newell's Old Boys0-1Unión (Santa Fe)
- Unión (Santa Fe)1-1Newell's Old Boys
- Unión (Santa Fe)2-0Newell's Old Boys
- Unión (Santa Fe)0-1Newell's Old Boys
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newell's Old Boys – Unión (Santa Fe)?
Our model gives 1 · Newell's Old Boys a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Newell's Old Boys win 44 %, draw 30 %, Unión (Santa Fe) win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Newell's Old Boys – Unión (Santa Fe)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.