Novorizontino
Operário PR
Novorizontino – Operário PR
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.06 – 0.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Novorizontino at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.06 goals for Novorizontino and 0.79 for Operário PR. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Novorizontino took 13 points and Operário PR 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Novorizontino, 1 draw, 3 wins for Operário PR. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Novorizontino | 1.46 | 63 % | -3.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -9.1 % |
| 2Operário PR | 6.00 | 15 % | -22.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Operário PR
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Novorizontino
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Operário PR
- Operário PR2-1Novorizontino
- Novorizontino3-0Operário PR
- Operário PR2-0Novorizontino
- Novorizontino0-1Operário PR
- Operário PR0-0Novorizontino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Novorizontino – Operário PR?
Our model gives 1 · Novorizontino a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Novorizontino win 66 %, draw 21 %, Operário PR win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Novorizontino – Operário PR?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.