América
Toluca
América – Toluca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.83 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards América at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.83 goals for América and 1.43 for Toluca. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. Over their last five matches, América took 8 points and Toluca 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for América, 1 draw, 2 wins for Toluca. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | 2.35 | 40 % | +8.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -5.8 % |
| 2Toluca | 2.75 | 34 % | -21.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
América
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toluca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- América
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Toluca
- América2-1Toluca
- Toluca2-0América
- Toluca2-0América
- América0-0Toluca
- América3-0Toluca
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América – Toluca?
Our model gives 1 · América a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América win 46 %, draw 25 %, Toluca win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for América – Toluca?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.