Napoli
1-0
Bologna
Napoli – Bologna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna. The model predicted a win for Napoli (44 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Napoli and 1.10 for Bologna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Napoli took 6 points and Bologna 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Napoli, 1 draw, 3 wins for Bologna. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 1.78 | 52 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Bologna | 4.40 | 21 % | +27.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bologna
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Napoli
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Bologna
- Napoli2-3Bologna
- Bologna2-0Napoli
- Bologna1-1Napoli
- Napoli3-0Bologna
- Napoli0-2Bologna
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Napoli – Bologna?
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna. The model predicted a win for Napoli (44 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Napoli – Bologna?
Our model gives 1 · Napoli a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Napoli win 44 %, draw 27 %, Bologna win 29 %.