Predictions are closed for this match.
Napoli
06:00 PM
Sep 13
Bologna
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 1.78 | 52 % | -21.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Bologna | 4.40 | 21 % | +27.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Napoli
Bologna
| Napoli | Form and statistics | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 1709 | Elo | 1633 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 13.0 | Shots / match | 12.3 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Napoli a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Napoli win 44 %, draw 27 %, Bologna win 29 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 46 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.78 for Napoli, 3.55 for the draw, 4.40 for Bologna.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Serie A), at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
The model leans towards Napoli at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Napoli and 1.10 for Bologna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Napoli took 6 points and Bologna 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Napoli, 1 draw, 3 wins for Bologna. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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