SV Elversberg
05:30 PM
Sep 13
Bayern Munich
SV Elversberg – Bayern Munich
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73 %
- Both teams to score
- 63 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich away from home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.14 goals for SV Elversberg and 2.68 for Bayern Munich. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 81 %. Over their last five matches, SV Elversberg took 12 points and Bayern Munich 13 points. Over 2.5 goals: 73 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SV Elversberg | 11.50 | 8 % | +71.9 % |
| XDraw | 8.25 | 11 % | +56.2 % |
| 2Bayern Munich | 1.16 | 81 % | -23.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
SV Elversberg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| SV Elversberg | Form and statistics | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 1630 | Elo | 2002 |
| 2.70 | Goals scored / match | 3.10 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 13.2 | Shots / match | 18.0 |
| 60 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SV Elversberg – Bayern Munich?
Our model gives 2 · Bayern Munich a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SV Elversberg win 15 %, draw 19 %, Bayern Munich win 66 %.
What is the most likely score for SV Elversberg – Bayern Munich?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
