Braga
FC Famalicao
Braga – FC Famalicao
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 31, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Braga at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Braga and 1.03 for FC Famalicao. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Braga took 3 points and FC Famalicao 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Braga, 3 draws, 0 wins for FC Famalicao. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Braga | 1.78 | 52 % | -14.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.42 | 27 % | -10.1 % |
| 2FC Famalicao | 4.55 | 20 % | +16.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Braga
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Famalicao
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Braga
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- FC Famalicao
- Braga2-2FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao1-2Braga
- FC Famalicao1-1Braga
- Braga3-3FC Famalicao
- FC Famalicao1-2Braga
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Braga – FC Famalicao?
Our model gives 1 · Braga a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Braga win 48 %, draw 26 %, FC Famalicao win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Braga – FC Famalicao?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.