Manchester United
05:30 PM
Sep 13
Manchester City
Manchester United – Manchester City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City away from home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.30 goals for Manchester United and 1.70 for Manchester City. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Manchester United took 10 points and Manchester City 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Manchester United, 1 draw, 1 win for Manchester City. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester United | 3.00 | 32 % | -8.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | -6.6 % |
| 2Manchester City | 2.23 | 43 % | -1.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Manchester United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Manchester United | Form and statistics | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 1766 | Elo | 1935 |
| 2.30 | Goals scored / match | 2.10 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 17.3 | Shots / match | 16.6 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Manchester United
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Manchester City
- Manchester United2-0Manchester City
- Manchester City3-0Manchester United
- Manchester United0-0Manchester City
- Manchester City1-2Manchester United
- Manchester City1-2Manchester United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Manchester United – Manchester City?
Our model gives 2 · Manchester City a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Manchester United win 31 %, draw 25 %, Manchester City win 44 %.
What is the most likely score for Manchester United – Manchester City?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
